Bitcoin sentiment can shift on a dime and that seems to be what is playing out right now. The bullish statements that have been pervading the space in recent weeks are giving way to more bearish overtones as the much vaunted ‘alt season’ has failed to arrive as advertised. With prices holding more or less still for the time being, are we set for a spell of red, or can this range still act as a springboard for future gains?
Bears Bite Back
The BTC price has spent the early part of the week fluctuating in a tight $70 range, not managing to get past $4,080, and its prolonged spell in this area that had offered hope is now turning to fear for some. The market cap and 24-hour trading volume have also remained fairly stagnant, suggesting that the market is waiting for the next move to present itself before people taking positions. It is evident however that the failure to break out of the $4,000 range is shaking the confidence of the community and has brought the bears back out to play:
someone set us up the bomb pic.twitter.com/ItMEmGb35e
— St Gainzy (@CryptoGainz1) March 20, 2019
I like it honestly, look at all that free space up there.
Perfect to bait people to long the monthly 4.5k~ resistance and then scam it all the way back down to the lows.
— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) March 19, 2019
There is some hope for those who fear the absolute worst however, if you take past price action into account:
Why #bitcoin will not drop under $2k:
1) Miners already capitulated (difficulty -25% Nov/Dec)
2) Too close to the Halving (14 months)
3) BTC never dropped below geometric mean ($2750)
4) BTC never dropped below 50% of stock-to-flow model ($5500)
5) RSI bottomed at (42) now rising pic.twitter.com/qJyFvKQcLQ
— planB (@100trillionUSD) March 5, 2019
The early week’s action has seen some outliers, both in the positive and negative sense, with XTZ, GXC, and HT seeing 15% rises, while on the flip side recent gainers such as ABBC and KIN saw anticipated pullbacks. One of the biggest losers this week was POLIS, which saw a 28% fall Monday after news of their debit card fiasco came to light. It’s not all doom and gloom for alts going forward however. DAPS is garnering attention due to their testnet launching tomorrow which could lead to some favorable price action, while another token, RPM, is undergoing a mainnet swap, which will see the coin moving from a LTC pairing to a BTC pairing. This swap will see the coin listed at the lowest possible price of 1 satoshi on the STEX exchange, which represents a 27% increase on the current dollar price. With masternode collateral numbers already known, the coin could see a last minute pump as would be masternode operators try and get their hands on collateral before the price increases.
In the Balance
Overall, if Bitcoin can maintain above the $3,950 area then alts should have some more room to play in the short term, but traders may need to exercise patience as the early week jitters settle down and confidence comes back. A slight Bitcoin correction however could lead to panic, and we all know that happens then – avalanche!
What do you think? Is Bitcoin set for a drop or do you think it will behave and let alts enjoy some more time in the spring sunshine? Let us know your thoughts below.