Bitcoin dropped to new lows at the weekend, slumping to $3,600, but the mood was far from somber. Many who had been calling for the 80% correction Bitcoin has experienced twice before had their predictions met and see the positives in the drop. Bitcoin has now retraced 82% since it hit $20,000 back in December 2017, the third largest correction in its history. It has twice before retraced by over 82%, the last time being during the 2014 bear market, which many have compared to the current situation, leading to some prominent bears altering their attitude.
It’s been a long time Since I’ve been Bullish on $BTCUSD. My best guess, 2nd Week of February right after the Crash to $6k, we rallied all the way to $12k. I see a similar path for #Bitcoin this time, but 2x to $8k might be a stretch.https://t.co/xX5TcUxOC2
— Tone Vays [@Bitcoin] (@ToneVays) November 22, 2018
Bounce off $3,600
According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin has had an incredible drop after the prolonged period stuck in the $6,500 area, taking out a number of resistance levels and losing 44% in the space of two weeks. To those who have been in the cryptocurrency space for some time these kinds of drops are nothing new and barely raise the heart rate, but for recent entrants into the market it seems that the almost halving in value after a year of decline has proved too much.
The negative mood was reflected in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index which plummeted to 9 as Bitcoin hit its lows, levels not seen since February and which are representative of “…a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity.” Since the drop to $3,600 however Bitcoin has seen a rise of $400, with many predicting a short-term rally, offering relief to beleaguered investors.
The question every crypto fan wants to know is if this really is the bottom and what happens from here. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is still predicting a $15,000 Bitcoin by the end of the year, which given its recent price action seems far-fetched at best, while others are still calling for $1,000 or even below. The truth is that no one knows, but with BAKKT delayed until 2019 there doesn’t seem to be a catalyst that will kick Bitcoin up a great deal.
Assuming that Bitcoin does indeed recover, its final low will result in a tiny percentage happening to be right, and you can bet your last dollar that they will rinse it for all it’s worth.